Recently, the 2018 China Agriculture Outlook Conference was inaugurated in Beijing, which, as an important achievement of the construction of agricultural information monitoring and early warning system with Chinese characteristics, will play an important role in promoting the development of modern agriculture and the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization under the new situation.

The issue of imbalanced insufficiency will be solved

China agriculture outlook report (2018-2027) released by the conference gave predication and outlooks for the supply and demand situation of major agricultural products market of China for the next 10 years.

According to the report, the characteristics of the agricultural product market of China in 2018 mainly include: the steady growth of agricultural production, the continuous optimization of the structure, the continuous growth of the consumption of agricultural products, the acceleration of the upgrading pace of the consumption structure, the continuous increase of the agricultural products import, the diversification of the structure, the overall stable price of agricultural products and the greater risk fluctuation of some varieties.

As indicated by Han Jun, deputy director of the Agricultural and Rural Ministry and deputy dean of Office of the Central Rural Work Leadership Group, the requirement on the upgrading of agricultural industry supply system is raised higher as the enhancement of urbanization and income levels, which also provides great impetus. In the next 10-20 years, as the continuous change of food consumption structure, the demand on edible agricultural products will trends towards growth.

In terms of production layout, Han Jun believes that besides the positive contribution to the regulation and supply of domestic market made by the agricultural products transactions, we can not expect to solve the supply issue of grain and main agricultural products in China by international market. We should take advantage of the opening period in terms of relatively loose relationship between grain supply and demand, and actively expand the soy bean production scale through grain-to-feed reform, corn-soybean-shifted planting, and other measures.

Han Jun said, we should strengthen the monitoring and early warning of agricultural production and market, promote the production and marketing connection of agricultural products through information guidance, enhance the international market discourse power, maximize the role of agricultural trade in promoting agricultural development and serving the foreign strategy of the country, further perfect the global agricultural layout, make clear the direction and focused areas of international market and international resource development, boost the diversification of import sources, and divert risks reasonably.

According to Tang Ke, director of the Market and Economic Information Department of the Agricultural and Rural Ministry and the deputy director of the Market Early-warning Expert Committee of the Agricultural and Rural Ministry, the supply side structural reform of agriculture industry in China has achieved positive results. In the next 10 years, the high-quality development of agriculture industry will achieve obvious achievements, and the issue of unbalanced agricultural development will be solved effectively.
Tang Ke said, in the future, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity of China will maintain its steady growth and grain will remain basically self-sufficient. The consumption of agricultural products will increase steadily, and the upgrading of consumption will accelerate significantly. The agricultural products trade will remain active, and import varieties and sources will be more diversified. The FTA partners and nations along route of the “Belt and Road” will become an important source of import of agricultural products of China. The overall prices of agricultural products will show a moderate increasing trend, and the marketization characteristics will be more obvious. The pricing mechanism of agricultural products market will be constantly improved, the price outlooks of rice and wheat will be stable in the early stage and trend weak subsequently, and the seasonal fluctuation of fresh varieties will still be obvious. According to prediction, the price of agricultural products will rise steadily in the later period, influenced by the factors such as cost promotion and economic growth.