Since the Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the procurement focus of Chinese entities has turned to countries such as Brazil. The decrease in US soybean imports has not had a substantial impact on China's soybean market. As recently learned by a reporter from the Economic Daily in an interview, the domestic grain enterprises such as China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) and China Grain Reserve Corporation have been committed to opening up diversified channels for soybean imports for many years, effectively diversifying the market risks brought about by the decrease of US soybean imports.
The global trade pattern for soybeans will change.
In recent years, Brazil has replaced the United States and become the largest source for the imports of soybeans in China. According to the statistics by customs, in 2016/2017, China's soybean imports amounted to 93.49 million tons, of which Brazil shared 45.34 million tons, accounting for 48.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 3 years ago; the United States shared 36.84 million tons, accounting for 39.4%, a decrease by 1 percentage point from 3 years ago. Soybean imports mainly from South America accounted for more than 60% of China's soybean imports, and showed a steady growth trend.
The insider believes that Sino-US trade friction will change the global trade pattern for soybeans. From the perspective of the global supply pattern for soybeans, Brazil has become the world's largest soybean supplier. In the past three years, Brazil's soybean exports accounted for 49% of the global trade volume for soybeans, and the US fell from 40% to 37%. China is the world's largest importer of soybeans. The annual import volume accounts for about 60% of the global total. Among them, soybeans imported from the United States account for more than 60% of the total US exports. After an imposition by China of a 25% import tariff on US soybeans this year, the US soybean import cost increased by RMB 700 yuan to 800 yuan per ton, about 300 yuan higher than Brazilian soybeans. US soybeans thus lost their competitive advantage. China's soybean imports will turn to such countries as Brazil, Argentina, Canada and Russia, and the global trade pattern for soybeans needs to be balanced.