Global pine nut production is expected to increase by 75% in 2024/2025 compared to 2023/2024, mainly driven by significant increases in Asia, while production in the Mediterranean region is relatively stable. China and Russia are the main drivers of production growth, with projected increases of 139% and 208%, respectively.


In 2023/2024, production in both countries fell significantly, especially in Russia, from 41,000 tonnes to 6,500 tonnes. In order to boost revenue and domestic processing, Russia will impose a 25% export duty on shelled pine nuts from August 1, 2024, and increase it to 50% from August 1, 2025.

In contrast, pine nut production in Mongolia, Afghanistan and Pakistan is expected to decline significantly. Mongolia has a serious problem with illegal logging, which has resulted in a 12 percent decrease in forest area since 2014. While the government plans to plant 44 million cedar trees by 2030, the trees will take 25 to 45 years to bear fruit. Afghanistan's pine nut exports have increased, but harvesters need better equipment and tools.


Production in the Mediterranean region is relatively stable. Portugal expects production to more than double to 1,500 tonnes. Turkey is expected to see a small decline of 2%, while Spain is expected to see a 27% decline.



Overall, the global pine nut market will grow significantly in 2024/2025, mainly driven by China and Russia. Illegal logging issues in Mongolia and policy changes in Russia will have an important impact on the market. Production in the Mediterranean region is relatively stable, but there are fluctuations in individual countries.