Analysis of productive area


Pistachio acreage in 2023 reached 463,000 acres, up 7.18% from 432,000 acres in 2022. This acreage is expected to continue to grow to 488,000 acres in 2024. However, the 129,000 acres of newly planted trees have not yet begun to bear fruit. While 90% of pistachio planting is concentrated in Central and Southern California, more than half of the new acreage is located in Northern California, a region that is relatively immune to water shortages, which will have a positive impact on future yields.


Production and sales forecast



Production in 2023 reached 3,217 pounds per acre, a 55% increase over 2022 and the third highest on record. However, production is expected to drop to 2,275 pounds per acre in 2024 due to off-year effects and hot weather, for a total production of just over 1.1 billion pounds, down 25% from 2023. Combined with last year's inventory transfers, total sales in 2024 are expected to be 1.35 billion pounds, historically second only to 2023's 1.65 billion pounds.

Based on inventory and shipment data for June 2024, the total inventory was 638,100 tons, including a large amount of unprocessed fruit. The marketable inventory is expected to be 163,300 tons at the end of June 2024. These figures indicate that despite the decline in new production in 2024, the overall market is still very well supplied.

Price trend


The price trends of pistachios over the past five years are as follows:





In 2023, the average price of pistachios dropped to $1.45 per pound, the lowest level in nearly a decade. This trend reflects the oversupply in the market, which is expected to continue until 2024, and price pressure is likely to remain, although total sales volumes remain substantial.

Harvest progress


The 2024 harvest is expected to take place 10-15 days earlier. Orchards in the south are likely to begin processing in late August or early September. The early harvest will help ease the tight supply situation in the market, but the overall reduction in production will still affect the market.


Taken together, while new pistachio production in 2024 is expected to be lower than in 2023, total sales remain at the second highest level on record. At the same time, downward pressure on prices is likely to persist as market supply increases. The expansion of planting in northern California provides a good foundation for a stable pistachio supply in the coming years, but also requires close attention to the management of water resources and the impact of climate change on yields.

In the current market environment, industry players should pay attention to changes in global market demand, optimize supply chain management, and utilize early harvest and inventory management strategies to maintain market stability and ensure maximum profits.