Chile's walnut exports declined significantly in the 2024/2025 season, with kernel exports down 14% year-on-year and shelled walnuts down 29%. As the closing month of the season in February this year, walnut kernel exports only 327 tons, a sharp decline of 60% year-on-year; shelled walnut exports of 135 tons, a drop of 71%, highlighting the weak market situation. Sub-regionally, the European market is divided: exports to Spain increased by 13%, but to Germany and Italy fell 3% and 21%, the overall export volume of the whole of Europe ultimately fell 2% to 22,360 metric tons. The Americas saw a 29% decline due to multiple factors, with only Uruguay bucking the trend with a 26% increase, while the Middle East, Africa, and Asian markets generally suffered a plunge of more than 40%.
Shelled walnuts export pattern, India is still the largest destination, although down 31%, but the Chinese market fell 50%, to Asia and Oceania region total contraction of 29% to 72,978 metric tons. Of note, Lithuanian purchases of Chilean walnuts surged, and imports from neighboring countries, such as Peru, rose 8%, pushing the Americas regional total up slightly. At the price level, global walnut prices are expected to remain high despite a 25% increase in Chilean production to 168,200 metric tons in the new season, coupled with a 27% decline in U.S. production and tightening inventories.
The international market is shifting significantly in 2015, with China becoming the new focus. Its 2024/2025 season walnut production stabilized at a high level of 1.55 million metric tons (compared to the last release of walnut production of 1.5 million tons, the USDA again updated data), coupled with Xinjiang walnuts due to the appearance of similar to the U.S. varieties of walnuts by the European buyers, and even appeared to exceed the supply and demand phenomenon. Yunnan walnuts are close to being sold out, and Xinjiang walnut prices held steady in March. This shift reflects both the market reality of high walnut prices in China and the U.S. and the substantial improvement in the recognition of Chinese walnut quality.