Based on the latest data from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global macadamia production is expected to grow by 6% to 344,240 tons in 2025, according to Germany's Mundus Agri. However, the outlook for production in Australia, which has been affected by recent hurricanes, is not optimistic. With the exception of Vietnam, all major producing countries will see growth in production, with China's production benefiting from the expansion of planting area, which is expected to increase to 74,500 tons. Shell nut procurement was launched on March 1 as Kenya's macadamia nuts entered the harvest season. Contrary to last year, the government is still adhering to its export ban on shell nuts. Exporters have already purchased 2,000-3,000 tons of shell nuts with the intention of shipping them to China. While some of this may be resold in Kenya's domestic market, traders believe that some of the shellnuts could be smuggled through Tanzania to China, thus circumventing the ban. Due to good flowering and fruit set in Kenyan macadamia trees, Kenya's macadamia production will increase by 5-8% this year to 47,500 tons, according to INC's most recent production assessment. The upward price movement of macadamia nuts earlier this season has dampened demand from China, with buyers mainly interested in 1s-type kernels. Chinese buyers are currently in talks with South African suppliers of shell nuts, but price expectations on both sides are still too far apart, meaning that more kernels will be left for sale in South Africa and Kenya. According to INC's report, an increase in the area planted with macadamia trees in China pushed up last year's production, and if weather conditions are favorable during the flowering and harvesting periods, China's production is expected to increase by a further 5,000-10,000 tons this year to 74,500 tons.On March 8-9, Australia was hit by Cyclone Alfred, which affected macadamia trees in places such as New South Wales. Hawaiian fruit trees were affected. As the full impact on the crop is still unclear, the current yield is quite uncertain. Meanwhile, demand for Australian macadamias remains strong in Europe and Asia. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) says the 2024 crop exceeded expectations despite the difficulties. The current production estimate for 3.5% moisture content shellnuts is more than 56,890 tons, and the society will revise its production forecast at the end of March once it has completed its assessment of the impact of the hurricane. Because new trees are growing well and yields from older trees should remain average, South Africa's macadamia nut production in 2025 is tentatively estimated to grow by 7% to 95,500 tons. The production forecast may be adjusted due to hot weather conditions that may affect macadamia size and weight. According to INC, global macadamia nut shell nut production will grow by 6% to 344,240 tons in 2025. Kernel production will even grow by 9%, from 88,220 tons in 2024 to 96,180 tons in 2025. With the exception of Vietnam, where production is expected to remain unchanged, all producer countries are expected to see an increase in production, most notably Guatemala, which is set to see a massive 20% increase in production this year. How optimistic the global production forecast can be depends largely on revised Australian production. Current prices for regular raw kernels from South Africa are $16.15/kg for Type 1 (+17mm, pasteurized), $12.25/kg for Type 4L (+15mm) and $12/kg for Type 4 (10-15mm). The price of regular raw kernel type 1L (16-20mm) from Kenya is US$15.25/kg, and the price of regular raw kernel type 1s from Guatemala is also US$15.25/kg.