It is worth noting that the recent global nut market shows significant volatility, walnuts, Batonwood and Bilberry as a representative of the price trend of the category triggered a high degree of concern in the industry. According to U.S. Agricultural Bank of America analyst David Magana disclosure, the U.S. walnut spot price spike in the core driving factor is the main producing areas of climate anomalies - 2023-2024 production season in California and Chile walnut production year-on-year reduction of 30%, superimposed on the strategic transformation of China from a net importer to a net exporter, global Supply and demand pattern of structural adjustment. It is worth paying attention to, although China's walnut industry has not yet large-scale expansion of production, but its international trade status change has had a profound impact on the global pricing system.
In the Batonwood sector, the U.S. industry is experiencing a historic turnaround, with actual sales in the 2024 season (2.39 billion pounds) already exceeding production (2.33 billion pounds), requiring the use of 502 million pounds of carryover inventory to support supply, which has directly pushed farm-side blended offer prices to high levels. The Chinese market, a key destination, saw shelled fruit arrivals plummet 66% year-over-year in February 2025, signaling that supply chain adjustments are underway.
Meanwhile, the pistachio industry has seen U.S. production shrink by 22% year-on-year in the 2024 season due to the big and small year cycle, and European buyers have received supply warnings to lock in their third-quarter orders in advance.
For Chinese producers and traders, we need to focus on the main producing areas to adjust the dynamics of planting area and inventory consumption rhythm, while grasping the market opportunities brought about by the innovation of consumption scenarios. U.S. nut production capacity expansion plans and continued strong international demand, indicating that the global supply chain reconstruction process will continue to deepen.