According to German media outlet Mundus Agri, the global pine nut market could see a production gap of nearly 30% due to an expected sharp year-on-year drop of more than 60% in China's pine nut production in the 2025/26 season, but sufficient carryover stocks from the previous season should be able to make up for the expected production gap in the new season.

China's pine nut production may plummet by 64.1%, while the Mediterranean Rim is expected to grow by nearly 29%.

At the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) conference in Palma, Spain, INC forecasts that global pine nut production could fall by 27.3% to 126,005 tons in the new season compared to 174,005 tons in the previous season, due to an expected 64.1% year-on-year decline in Chinese pine nut production in the 2025/26 season. down 27.3% to 126,520 tons. Global pine nut production is far more volatile than other nut categories, with total production of only 78,180 tons in the 2023/24 season compared to 165,550 tons in the 2022/23 season. Pine nuts in the main producing countries are mostly harvested from wild environments, with very few commercially grown areas, and the harvesting process is often accompanied by high risk.
Global pine nut production comes mainly from China, whose output is expected to plummet 64.1% year-on-year in the 2025/26 season, slipping from 111,500 tons to 40,000 tons. North Korea's production is expected to be flat at 30,000 tons, Russia's Siberia region is expected to see a 66.7% surge to 25,000 tons, and Mongolia is expected to produce 9,000 tons. The Mediterranean Rim also produces large quantities of Italian stone pine, and production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase 39.4% year-on-year to 7,600 tons in Turkey, decrease 20% to 500 tons in Italy, and be flat at 500 tons in both Portugal and Spain. Production in Spain and Portugal continues to be low due to extreme drought conditions in the 2022/23 season. Production in both countries remains unchanged at 1,200 tons each in the 2022/23 season, with Spain's production rebounding to 2,070 tons next season while Portugal's drops to 700 tons. Overall, Mediterranean pine nut production is expected to grow by 28.6% to 9,520 tons next season. Together with the carry-over stocks of the current season, the supply of pine nuts in the international market is still expected to reach 214,790 tons in the 2025/26 season, an increase of about 14,500 tons compared with the previous season.

80% of EU imports originate from China

Between January 1 and May 4, 2025, the EU imported a cumulative total of 3,953 tons of pine nuts from third countries, valued at EUR 67.435 million. Import volume increased by 31.4% year-on-year, import value soared by 37.9%, and the average import price reached 17.06 euros per kilogram, up by about 5% year-on-year.

China's exports to the EU rose 40.8% to 3,150 tons over the same period, accounting for nearly 80% of the EU's total imports. EU imports from Mongolia (surged 460% to 224 tons) and Afghanistan (surged 550% to 39 tons) also grew significantly, while imports from Russia (down 26% to 368 tons) and Turkey (down 20% to 140 tons) slipped. Germany (up 81.3% to 1,940 tons), Italy (up 61.8% to 521 tons) and the Netherlands (down 23.8% to 478 tons) were the main EU importers.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)