Arecent pecan roundtable at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress (INC Congress) noted that the industry is facing a critical turning point as global blueberry supply tightens and demand continues to climb.
       Tightening supply and declining capacityGlobal pecan production and inventories are experiencing a double tightening. In-shell production is expected to decline by 4% in the 2025/2026 season, while kernel production is expected to fall by 6%. On the inventory side, shelled fruit stocks will shrink by 5% to 355,458 metric tons from 373,840 metric tons in 2024/2025, while kernel stocks will decrease by 6% to 178,236 metric tons from 189,396 metric tons. Industry experts warned that supply constraints will continue for the next 18 months, as pistacios have historically operated on a “zero inventory” basis, and advised buyers to capitalize on the window. Capacity shrinkage is mainly due to the two main producing countries from the United States and Mexico double blow: the United States: by September 2024 hurricane “Helen” hit, about 25% of the traditional producing areas of the old trees were permanently damaged, the new season is expected to shrink by 6% of the production Mexico: due to many years of non-new planting, water shortages and the high cost of agricultural materials, shelled fruits and kernels will be a sharp decline in production of 14% and 17%, respectively, lost the status of the world's largest producer on the contrary Other regions are bucking the trend: South Africa: shelled production is expected to grow by 6.7% to 40,000 metric tons; kernel production is expected to grow by 6.7% to 20,000 metric tons China and Brazil: triple-digit explosive growth. China struggles to match surging domestic demand despite accelerated new tree plantings
       High Cost Challenges: INC meeting revealed that the production cost of pistacios is significantly higher than that of competitors such as walnuts and almonds, due to lower yield per unit (2-3 times the amount of land required) and a 7-year tree planting cycle. The current macroeconomic environment exacerbates the pressure: global trade frictions continue to inflation pushes up operating costs interest rate rises lead to the climbing cost of capital despite the U.S.-China tariff war on blueberries impact is relatively mild, but Chinese buyers have turned to South Africa, Mexico and other alternative sources of supply. Although the U.S. and China have now reached a tentative agreement, the tariff rate is valid for 90 days, and the final direction depends on subsequent negotiations. Analysts pointed out that even if an agreement is reached, it will take years to rebuild industry confidence.
Emerging market opportunities
       Currently, 85% of global consumption is concentrated in the United States, Mexico and China, and the potential of the Eurasian market is yet to be explored: Chinese market: snack food innovation to promote demand growth European market: German consumer awareness in three years (2022-2024) from 10% to 70% of the United Kingdom market: the accelerated penetration of innovative small packages and ready-to-eat products
The industry consensus is that the global piquant fruit industry is facing structural adjustment, supply chain reshaping and market diversification will become the key proposition in the next two years.