Despite a bumper year for U.S. pistachios, global pistachio production for the 2025/26 season is expected to remain below the previous season's level, according to data released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Association (INC) at its general meeting in early May, German media outlet Mundus Agri reported. U.S. pistachio exports weakened this season, with exports to China plummeting 46%, but the U.S.-China agreement in Geneva added an unexpected variable to the market.

Bountiful production can't hide the gloomy outlook

Although the U.S. pistachio 2025/26 season is expected to achieve 726,400 tons (1.6 billion pounds) of bumper harvest, but the global production is expected to decline by 3% compared with the 2024/25 season, down to 1,130,650,000 tons. The key issue is the plummeting production in Turkey - the country had a record 2024/25 season, but is about to enter a cyclical mini-year, coupled with frost impacts in some production areas. Turkish pistachio production is expected to fall to 143,000 tons from 415,500 tons in the 2024/25 season, a 65.6% plunge.

The supply side presents a different picture. Global supply is expected to grow by 10% to 1.462 million tons in the 2025/26 season from 1.332 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The main driver remains Turkey, which will end the season with a staggering 243,400 tons of carryover stocks. Turkey's pistachio acreage has continued to expand since 2011, with production climbing so that it is gradually becoming a reliable supplier with stable supply, while consumer awareness of Turkish pistachios is also on the rise.

Production in the United States is expected to reach 726,400 tons (1.6 billion pounds). Although its production is expected to continue to grow over the next five years, the growth rate has peaked and will remain stable. The U.S. pistachio industry is targeting India as an emerging hot market, while increasing marketing efforts in China.

Spain's production is expected to double to 9,600 tons. The country's pistachio production has grown consistently since 2012 and is expected to meet 10% of European market demand over the next five years.

Iranian pistachio kernel exports countered the United States

Iran's pistachio exports are benefiting from growing demand for pistachio kernels, with the share of kernels exported this season expected to hit a new high of 47%. data released at the INC conference showed that Iran's pistachio kernel exports have overtaken those of the United States in the 2023/24 season with a market share of 51%. forecasts for the September-April 2024/25 season show Iran's market share expanding further to 71%, with the United States shrinking to 29%. shrinking to 29%.

U.S. Pistachio Sales Cold in April

U.S. pistachio shipments were sluggish in April, with total monthly shipments of 69.417 million pounds, down 11% from 79.299 million pounds a year earlier. Domestic shipments plunged 20% to 17.167 million pounds, while exports fell 10% to 52.25 million pounds. Cumulative shipments of 686.968 million pounds so far this season are down 24% from 903.712 million pounds during the same period in the 2023/24 season, but are still higher than the 602.104 million pounds shipped in the previous mini year, the 2022/23 season. Cumulative domestic shipments for the season were down 6% from the same period last season at 159.81 million pounds, and cumulative exports were down 28% from the record 733.512 million pounds for the same period in the 2023/24 season. As of April 30, 2025, U.S. pistachio marketable stocks for the 2024/25 season are estimated at 427.351 million pounds.

Can the Geneva Agreement Activate Exports to China?

China remains the largest destination for U.S. pistachio exports this season, despite a 46% plunge in exports to the country so far this season and tense bilateral trade relations. While production cuts have been the primary reason for the decline in exports, and it is difficult to determine what impact the recent tensions have had, U.S. pistachio shipments to China plummeted 69% to 2.454 million pounds in April.

The situation changed abruptly when the U.S. and China recently reached a more-than-expected agreement in Geneva. While the move eases tensions, the final agreement has yet to be finalized and uncertainty remains. The tariff war also explains the surge in re-exports to China via Vietnam, where cumulative U.S. pistachio exports have reached 35,068 tons so far this season, up a whopping 40% from 25,050 tons in the same period last season.