In the global cashew market, Vietnam and Nigeria, as important producers, show different trajectories and challenges.
Vietnam has long occupied a central position in the global cashew trade with its mature processing and export system. Data shows that Vietnam's cashew nut kernel exports reached 756,000 metric tons in 2024, with imports into the Chinese market rising 19.9 percent year-on-year and climbing to a value of $750 million. The U.S., Vietnam's second-largest export market, despite imports of 156,000 metric tons in 2024, may affect future orders as some buyers are requesting delays in shipments or price reductions to share costs due to trade uncertainty caused by the recent 10% tariff hike in the United States.
Production volatility in Vietnam is also constrained by weather, with harvest delays and quality declining in 2025 due to excessive rain, but replenishment of feedstock from West Africa is expected to ease supply pressures by midyear. Meanwhile, production growth in Cambodia and Tanzania has been significant, boosting the global total by 7-9% year-on-year, highlighting increased regional competition.
Nigeria, on the other hand, focuses on raw material exports, with production reaching 240,000 tons in 2021, a 10% annual growth rate, ranking third in Africa and sixth globally. Its cashew industry for the domestic creation of more than 500,000 jobs, annual export revenue of more than 500 million U.S. dollars, but the weak processing capacity limits the value-added enhancement. More than 90% of the country's raw cashew nuts are directly exported to Vietnam, India and other places, and then processed and sold to the world.
The rise of the Chinese market has brought new opportunities for Nigeria, and exports to China have grown significantly in recent years, but climate change, pests and diseases and aging plantations threaten the stability of production. Nigeria is looking for cooperation with China, through technology transfer and joint ventures to improve the level of processing, such as in Guangxi and other border areas to expand the procurement of kernels with skin, the use of tax incentives to open up new channels.
Global cashew prices are significantly affected by fluctuations in supply and demand, the raw material price of $1,800 per ton in 2024, Vietnam and India's pricing power on Nigeria's export profits to form a squeeze, strengthen the local processing capacity has become the key to break the game.

The industrial path of the two countries reflects the division of labor and challenges of the global cashew chain. Vietnam relies on a mature industrial chain to cope with tariffs and weather risks, while Nigeria urgently needs to break through the processing bottleneck to capture the market dividends. Adjustments in China's import strategy as a core consumer market - such as its preference for Vietnam's skinned kernels or its sourcing of Nigeria's raw materials - will continue to influence the trade pattern between the two countries.
In the future, the linkage of raw materials between Vietnam and West Africa, and the technical cooperation between Nigeria and China, may become key variables in reshaping the global cashew supply chain.