The window of opportunity for South African pecans to enter the Chinese market is about to open
Pubtime：2025-07-11Author：Source：
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In June 2025, the General Administration of Customs of China announced new non-tariff policies, although they have not been fully implemented yet. However, with 53 African countries, including South Africa, enjoying zero-tariff treatment for their exports to China, the 97% of South African pecans exported to China will gain a significant competitive advantage. This policy coincides with the renewed escalation of the Sino-US trade friction, accelerating the structural adjustment of the global pecan supply chain.
The rapid shift of China's procurement channels in the early stage of the trade war indicates that, against the backdrop of sensitive geopolitical relations, low-tariff supply countries will continue to receive trade flow preferences. China's rise of the middle class around 2010 made it the world's largest consumer importer of pecans (it should be noted that the United States, although long the largest importer, mainly uses Mexican pecans for re-export and to stabilize domestic farm purchase prices). The surge in Chinese demand was mainly driven by a decline in domestic walnut production and the upgrading of the nut consumption market. Chinese buyers and processors, taking advantage of the quality of pecans, began to directly purchase raw pecans from American farms as an alternative. The American Pecan Growers Association actively explored the Chinese market and successfully reduced the import tariff from about 30% to 7%, leading to an import volume of 60,000 tons (130.2 million pounds) in 2012. By November 2017, the monthly purchase volume had reached 120 million pounds, of which 115 million pounds were raw pecans. As China mainly purchases raw pecans, farmers can supply directly to the end market, causing farm purchase prices to generally increase threefold and stimulating farmers to increase their trade with China. The imposition of tariffs on China by the Trump administration triggered a trade confrontation, and China implemented reciprocal countermeasures, severely impacting agricultural products such as pecans. Chinese buyers quickly turned to alternative supply sources such as South Africa and Mexico. The surge in demand has driven the price of raw South African pecans to continue to rise, and currently 97% of its production is exported to China.
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