The global pistachio market is currently at a critical juncture of strategic maneuvering. The market exhibits pronounced polarization: the United States, leveraging its brand and quality advantages, has set a benchmark price of $9.02 per kilogram, adopting a high-stakes stance; meanwhile, Iran, constrained by factors such as smaller nut size and financial sanctions, is compelled to compete at $7.00–7.50 per kilogram or even lower. In this pricing battle, China, as the core buyer, holds the decisive power to shape market direction through its procurement decisions.
Considering the positions of all market participants, the U.S., as the price-setter, faces the risk of “prices without transactions” despite setting a high opening price. Should Chinese procurement fall short of expectations, U.S. pistachio prices are likely to retreat to the $8.00–8.50/kg range between late Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Iran primarily adopts a “price-for-volume” strategy, keeping conventional varieties suppressed at lower levels. However, green kernel varieties maintain relatively firm prices due to their uniqueness, serving as a crucial profit safeguard for Iran.

The Chinese market currently remains in a wait-and-see mode. Traders are unlikely to immediately accept high U.S. prices, instead waiting for more favorable procurement opportunities. Once prices enter their target range—such as U.S. prices falling below $8.50/kg or Iran offering oversold prices—it could trigger concentrated buying by Chinese buyers, thereby supporting global market prices.

Regarding market trends, we anticipate two primary scenarios. The first involves active Chinese buying, with a probability of approximately 40%. Substantial declines in U.S. prices, Iran dumping at rock-bottom prices due to funding pressures, or faster-than-expected domestic inventory drawdowns in China could all trigger large-scale Chinese purchases. In this scenario, Chinese buying would rapidly absorb the new U.S. crop, supporting and stabilizing U.S. prices above $8.50/kg. This would also pull Iranian prices higher, ultimately establishing a new equilibrium at a relatively elevated global price level.

The second, more probable scenario involves China maintaining a wait-and-see approach and delaying purchases, with an approximate probability of 60%. If domestic economic confidence remains weak, end-user consumption falters, or traders bet on further price declines, the Chinese market will continue its cautious stance. This would lead to a backlog of new-crop U.S. cargoes, sharply increasing inventory pressure and forcing U.S. suppliers to initiate price cuts. Simultaneously, Iran would engage in fiercer price wars to secure limited orders, potentially pushing quotes below the psychological threshold of $7.00/kg. The ultimate outcome would be a spiraling downward trajectory for global prices, with this inventory pressure persisting until 2026—or until prices drop sufficiently to attract large-scale bargain-hunting by Chinese buyers.

Overall, the global pistachio market faces near-term downside risks, with prices clearly under pressure over the next 2-3 months. The medium-term trajectory will hinge entirely on China's procurement pace, where collective decisions by Chinese traders will signal the market's turning point. By variety, premium U.S. grades will see relatively contained price declines, while standard Iranian varieties face the heaviest downward pressure. Iran's green kernel variety, as a scarce product, will demonstrate the strongest price resilience.

Overall, the market currently navigates a delicate phase characterized by “the U.S. testing upper limits, Iran defending lower thresholds, and China awaiting the turning point.” Market participants are advised to closely monitor procurement activities of major Chinese importers and domestic port inventory data, as these metrics serve as the most direct leading indicators for anticipating price movements.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)